Browns roster ramblings and some predictions

Looking over the final roster, here are some random thoughts:

Best units:
1. Linebackers--Their youth could hurt at first, but they are fast with huge potential. Could develop into the one of the best LB corps in the league down the road.
2. Tight ends--KWII appears healthy, Heiden is always dependable, Dinkins provides depth.

Shakiest units:
1. Defensive line--The starting nose tackle is a year older and the guy being groomed as his replacement is unproven and starting at left end due to injury. Free agency and the draft changed a lot of faces, but can any of them play? Run defense has to be a huge concern.
2. Defensive backs--The talent is there if it is healthy, but that has been a big "if" the past two seasons. The Browns kept 10 DBs, 7 of them CBs for just this reason.
3. Running backs--Jamal Lewis has looked good, but can he carry the load all season, and if he gets hurt, can either of the remaining guys be a starter week in and week out?
4. Wide receivers--Braylon Edwards is talented, but inconsistent. Joe Jurecvicious is dependable, but not a star. Beyond those two, no one has stepped up. Someone needs to.

Most improved unit:
1. Offensive line--A couple years ago the Browns restocked the line with a bunch of past-their prime free agents. This season they rebuilt it with young free agents and draft choices. Steinbach, Thomas, and McKinney are a huge boost, and if Bentley comes back this line could be great.

Players that worry me the most:
1. Ted Washington--he struggled at times last season, with one front office exec saying "He's already retired, he just doesn't know it." His experience and tremendous size earn him the starting spot, but the skills just aren't there any more.
2. Phil Dawson--he struggled the last half of last season, missing 5 of his last 9, and also missed a couple of field goals during the preseason.

The next Browns Pro Bowlers: Kamerion Wimbley and Kellen Winslow

Browns Potential Pro Bowlers over the next few years: Sean Jones, Eric Steinbach, Joe Thomas, Leigh Bodden, Eric Wright, Leon Williams, Braylon Edwards, Brady Quinn

The Final Cut Down

NFL teams pared their rosters to the mandatory 53 player limit over the weekend. Nothing shocking, although a few mild surprises among the Browns cuts:

• QB Ken Dorsey's release--while Dorsey was never a threat to start, or even be the#2, he seemed to have embraced the role of mentor to Quinn, and probably knew Chud's offense better than anybody
• RB Chris Barclay's release--following a strong NFL Europe season and some nice pre-season special teams performances, I thought he would make the team
• Draft picks cut--7 second day picks from the last 3 years were cut, although I imagine that Purcell, Pitman, and Steptoe from this years draft will probably be re-signed to the practice squad.
• Baba Oshinowo released, again--wasn't this guy supposed to be the 2nd best NT in the draft last year and a real steal in the 6th round? If he can't make it on the Browns D-line he must suck.
• Steve Sanders--I think he had a good camp, and is a good story. I hope he gets invited back on the practice squad.

Draft poll results

New polls are up! Not too surprising, the results of the draft polls were overwhelmingly positive.

The good, the bad, and the ugly

It's great to have football back again! What a long off-season. On a couple of occassions I have found myself watching the 2nd half of preseason games of teams I have absolutely no interest in, just to get a football fix.

I've been away for awhile, but here's my take on the first few weeks of training camp:

The good:

• Getting Joe Thomas and Eric Wright into training camp on time. This is huge. Both have looked good, and will likely start week 1
• Getting healthy--Gary Baxter and Kellen Winslow have practiced and so far have suffered no setbacks.
• The LBs--Kamerion Wimbley, Leon Williams, Antwan Peek, and Chaun Thompson are quietly having a nice camp.

The bad:

• Injuries--as always, the Browns have been bit by the injury bug already. Nothing season ending, but of note: Eric Steinbach, Orpheus Roye, Willie McGinest, and Leigh Bodden have all been slowed. Bodden worries me the most since it seems to suggest that his ankles have not heeled and may plague him all season.
• Brady Quinn's holdout--its never good for a 1st rounder to holdout, especially when its a QB.
• The WRs--Josh Cribbs is the #3 receiver not because he has been that good, but because the guys supposed to challenge for the spot (Travis Wilson & Tim Carter) have either been hurt or can't hold onto the ball.

The ugly:

• The QB competition--I had hoped that the starter could be named following the 2nd preseason game, but so far that's not the case--and its not because they are both playing so well. Neither Charlie Frye nor Derek Anderson look worthy of starting.
• LeCharles Bentley--I love that he is trying to come back and is progressing so well, but the Browns have not exactly been welcoming him back with open arms--their response has been odd. Seems like something fishy is going on behind the scenes here. I hope I'm wrong.

Will Brady Quinn win, or be a bust?

Football Outsiders has a nice article that looks at what factors predict QB success in the pros. It turns out that number of games started and completion percentage in college are the most important predictors of pro success.

Based on this, Quinn should do well, while JaMarcus Russell is a risk.

How the draft was won

I love this photo, and I'm still smiling about the draft.

If, like me, you can't get enough of reliving the draft, here are two more good articles on the Browns draft. The first, from USA today, describes what happened in the Browns war room during the 1st round. The second, from Foxsports.com describes what Brady Quinn went through while waiting to be drafted. Good reading.

Defining Day for Browns

What a day! The first day of the draft was a day that will determine the fate of the Browns for years to come. It will also define the career of Phil Savage & possibly coach Romeo Crennel.

As everyone now knows, the Browns drafted OT Joe Thomas at #3. I love this pick. Addressed a huge need that has thus far been neglected in the draft. He was the first tackle drafted by the Browns in the first 3 rounds since 1979, and the first drafted in the 1st round since 1970. A solid player, with very little downside.

All the speculation of trades among the top 10 teams drafting never occurred, and when the Dolphins surprisingly passed on Brady Quinn at #9, Phil Savage went to work, trading the Browns 2nd round pick this year, and 1st rounder next year to Dallas to move back into round one to grab Quinn! I don't know if Quinn will be the answer, but I like the gutsiness and aggressiveness that the Browns showed to improve the team.

"Five years from now we'll be saying, 'That was the day the Browns turned around,' " Savage said on Saturday night. "Either that, or 'Boy, that was the day Savage screwed up the whole thing.' "

Amen.

What I hope happens

My wish list for the Browns first pick in order of preference:

1. Trade down (1 to 10 spots) and pick up a couple extra first day picks
2. Draft Joe Thomas
3. Draft Calvin Johnson (and possibly trade him)
4. Draft Adrian Peterson
5. Draft Brady Quinn
6. Draft Jamarcus Russell
   

If the Browns do trade down a few spots, they still may be able to get one of the players above. If they trade down 6 or more spots, I think they might draft OT Levi Brown or a defensive lineman or cornerback.

If the Browns take anyone other than Joe Thomas in the 1st, they should definitely take an offensive lineman in the second, possibly G Ben Grubbs of Auburn, and then take a CB or D-lineman in the 3rd.

If the Browns do take Thomas in the 1st, they should take a CB or D-lineman in the 2nd, and RB Michael Bush of Louisville in the 3rd.

Quinn at #1? More draft drama

According to Profootballtalk.com, the Raiders are talking to the agents for JaMarcus Russell, Calvin Johnson, and Brady Quinn. No surprise here, its common for the team with the #1 pick to try to get a deal done before the draft. Rumor has it, that the Raiders have made a "low ball" offer to Quinn, since he is the least likely of the 3 to go #1. If true, the dilemma for Quinn is to decide if he wants to get paid on the low side as a #1, or get paid a "normal" amount for being drafted at some lower position--possible very low if both the Lions and Browns pass on him.

Normally you would think that the players agent, having their clients best interests in mind, would never advise the player to take a "low ball" offer. Here's where things get interesting. Quinn is represented by CAA sports agenty who also represents Adrian Peterson. So in theory, it would be in CAA's best interest to have Quinn take the offer and go at #1, so that Peterson might get picked by the Browns at #3. Otherwise, in the worst case scenario, one of both players could go at #7 or lower.

I don't give much credence to all of this, but it certainly is interesting. Like I said, this year the draft is anything but boring.

Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame

If the Browns decide to choose a QB (and I hope they don't), then my choice would be Brady Quinn. While JaMarcus Russell is a tremendously gifted athlete with a cannon for an arm, Brady Quinn is a more polished passer who is more prepared to step into a pro offense.

Sentiment has shifted from Quinn to Russell over the past few months, in part due to LSU's bowl win over Notre Dame, but overall Quinn has a longer track record of quality play with a mediocre supporting cast, than Russell has with a better supporting cast. Russell is raw and probably has more upside, but also more potential downside and therefore is the riskier pick.

Draft needs

Looking at the team following the recent free-agent acquisitions, I think the biggest team needs, in order are:

1. Offensive line--free agency made it better, but still no stars.
2. Defensive line--same story. Could use a young end and dominate nose tackle.
3. Cornerback--what seemed to be the strongest spot a year ago has been devastated by injury.
4. Running back--Jamal Lewis is a big question mark and is only signed for 1 season.
5. Quarterback--Neither Charlie Frye or Derek Anderson looked like the answer last season, but between the awful line and change in offensive coordinator even Peyton Manning would have looked bad.
6. Wide receiver--Braylon Edwards is talented, but a distraction last year. Joe Jurevicius is solid but probably only has a few years left. Travis Wilson barely saw the field last year and Tim Carter has yet to live up to his billing.

At CB & DL there are no players worthy of being drafted #3, so unless the Browns trade down, its likely they will take one of the "fab five": QB JaMarcus Russell, QB Brady Quinn, RB Adrian Peterson, OT Joe Thomas, and WR Calvin Johnson.

NFL Draft Speculation

This time of year is absolutely crazy with speculation and rumor about who teams are going to draft. And 99% of the time the speculation is nothing more than a wrong guess. It's the NFL's own version of March Madness.

For some time, the consensus among NFL draft "experts" (often anyone with a website or blog), was that the Browns were leaning toward drafting RB Adrian Peterson. This compilation of mock drafts, the "Mock Draft Muncher" shows as much. However, this was compiled 2 weeks ago, and a lot has changed in two weeks.

One persistent rumor is that the Oakland Raiders, who own the #1 pick, plan to trade WR Randy Moss (possibly to Green Bay). If this were to happen, Oakland would have a need for WR Calvin Johnson, thought to be the best player in the draft by many. This could possibly drop QB JeMarcus Russell into the Browns lap at #3, assuming Detroit takes OT Joe Thomas, as predicted.

I have also read that some teams think that decent running backs can be found throughout the draft, and that unless a RB projects as the next LaDanian Tomlinson, its not worth the money to take a RB in the top 10 of the draft. Based on this, there has been speculation that the Browns will take Russell or QB Brady Quinn at #3.

Finally, there are numerous rumors about the Lions or Browns trading down, with the possible teams looking to move up including the Vikings (#7), Falcons (#8), or Texans (#10).