Draft poll results

New polls are up! Not too surprising, the results of the draft polls were overwhelmingly positive.

Will Brady Quinn win, or be a bust?

Football Outsiders has a nice article that looks at what factors predict QB success in the pros. It turns out that number of games started and completion percentage in college are the most important predictors of pro success.

Based on this, Quinn should do well, while JaMarcus Russell is a risk.

How the draft was won

I love this photo, and I'm still smiling about the draft.

If, like me, you can't get enough of reliving the draft, here are two more good articles on the Browns draft. The first, from USA today, describes what happened in the Browns war room during the 1st round. The second, from Foxsports.com describes what Brady Quinn went through while waiting to be drafted. Good reading.

Consensus Draft Grades

ESPN.com has a nice compilation of draft grades from various sports sites. The Browns got an A from everyone except Mel Kiper, but then what does he know.

CBSSportsline.com's Pete Prisco	C	B-	A+	B-
FoxSports.com's John Czarnecki	C-	C	A+	B
ESPN.com's Mel Kiper Jr.	B	C+	B+	B
NBCSports.com's Tom Curran	C	C+	A	B
SI.com's Paul Zimmerman	B-	C	A	B-
ESPN.com's SportsNation	B	B	A	B
SportingNews.com's War Room Scouts	B	B	A	B
USAToday.com's Tom Weir	B	B	A	B
Yahoo.com's Charles Robinson	B	C	A-	B
Consensus GPA	2.6	2.5	4.0	2.9

Defining Day for Browns

What a day! The first day of the draft was a day that will determine the fate of the Browns for years to come. It will also define the career of Phil Savage & possibly coach Romeo Crennel.

As everyone now knows, the Browns drafted OT Joe Thomas at #3. I love this pick. Addressed a huge need that has thus far been neglected in the draft. He was the first tackle drafted by the Browns in the first 3 rounds since 1979, and the first drafted in the 1st round since 1970. A solid player, with very little downside.

All the speculation of trades among the top 10 teams drafting never occurred, and when the Dolphins surprisingly passed on Brady Quinn at #9, Phil Savage went to work, trading the Browns 2nd round pick this year, and 1st rounder next year to Dallas to move back into round one to grab Quinn! I don't know if Quinn will be the answer, but I like the gutsiness and aggressiveness that the Browns showed to improve the team.

"Five years from now we'll be saying, 'That was the day the Browns turned around,' " Savage said on Saturday night. "Either that, or 'Boy, that was the day Savage screwed up the whole thing.' "

Amen.

What I hope happens

My wish list for the Browns first pick in order of preference:

1. Trade down (1 to 10 spots) and pick up a couple extra first day picks
2. Draft Joe Thomas
3. Draft Calvin Johnson (and possibly trade him)
4. Draft Adrian Peterson
5. Draft Brady Quinn
6. Draft Jamarcus Russell
   

If the Browns do trade down a few spots, they still may be able to get one of the players above. If they trade down 6 or more spots, I think they might draft OT Levi Brown or a defensive lineman or cornerback.

If the Browns take anyone other than Joe Thomas in the 1st, they should definitely take an offensive lineman in the second, possibly G Ben Grubbs of Auburn, and then take a CB or D-lineman in the 3rd.

If the Browns do take Thomas in the 1st, they should take a CB or D-lineman in the 2nd, and RB Michael Bush of Louisville in the 3rd.

The case against drafting a QB

As I've said before, I hope that the Browns don't draft a quarterback in the first round, for a couple of reasons.

First, taking a QB is risky, as they tend to have a high probability of being a bust regardless of their college resume. Taking one early in the first round only means that a team must spend millions in guaranteed money before they know if they have a bust. An analysis on ESPN.com's Page 2 shows that since 1989, QBs drafted in the first round have been busts 53% of the time. I don't like those odds, and the Browns have been anything but lucky lately. This team cannot take the risk of wasting millions of dollars and several more years of mediocrity with so many other glaring needs.

Second, Charlie Frye (or possibly Derek Anderson) has not been given time to establish himself. The team committed to Frye as their QB of the future just 2 years ago, and it is too early to give up on that. True, he has won only 5 of his 18 starts, but Peyton Manning only won 4 of his first 18. In order for a young QB to be successful he needs time, a healthy, semi-talented offensive line, and a stable offensive system in place. Frye hasn't had any of these. I don't love Frye, but he's not the worst QB I've seen either.

JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU

As I've said before, I think that choosing JaMarcus Russell would carry the biggest risks, but also have the biggest potential upside. Phil Savage has known Russell since he attended his football camp in Mobile, AL as a 14 year old. I hope that Savage judges Russell objectively and based on what is in the best interest of the team, rather than his long time personal relationship with Russell.

Quinn at #1? More draft drama

According to Profootballtalk.com, the Raiders are talking to the agents for JaMarcus Russell, Calvin Johnson, and Brady Quinn. No surprise here, its common for the team with the #1 pick to try to get a deal done before the draft. Rumor has it, that the Raiders have made a "low ball" offer to Quinn, since he is the least likely of the 3 to go #1. If true, the dilemma for Quinn is to decide if he wants to get paid on the low side as a #1, or get paid a "normal" amount for being drafted at some lower position--possible very low if both the Lions and Browns pass on him.

Normally you would think that the players agent, having their clients best interests in mind, would never advise the player to take a "low ball" offer. Here's where things get interesting. Quinn is represented by CAA sports agenty who also represents Adrian Peterson. So in theory, it would be in CAA's best interest to have Quinn take the offer and go at #1, so that Peterson might get picked by the Browns at #3. Otherwise, in the worst case scenario, one of both players could go at #7 or lower.

I don't give much credence to all of this, but it certainly is interesting. Like I said, this year the draft is anything but boring.

Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame

If the Browns decide to choose a QB (and I hope they don't), then my choice would be Brady Quinn. While JaMarcus Russell is a tremendously gifted athlete with a cannon for an arm, Brady Quinn is a more polished passer who is more prepared to step into a pro offense.

Sentiment has shifted from Quinn to Russell over the past few months, in part due to LSU's bowl win over Notre Dame, but overall Quinn has a longer track record of quality play with a mediocre supporting cast, than Russell has with a better supporting cast. Russell is raw and probably has more upside, but also more potential downside and therefore is the riskier pick.

Peterson stock drop?

If this story in SI is true, than Oklahoma RB Adrian Peterson might no longer be a top 5 pick. According to the story, Peterson re-injured his collarbone in the Fiesta Bowl, and might require surgery to properly heal. If so, he might be sidelined until the beginning of training camp or longer.

Pictured is the dive that broke his collarbone back in October.

One things for sure, this year's draft is anything but boring and predictable.

Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech

Wide receiver is one of the few positions that the Browns probably don't need to fill with a first rounder. Still, he wouldn't be a bad pick for Cleveland, simply because he is thought by many to be the best player in the draft and the least likely to be a bust. In case you haven't noticed, I'm worried about busts.

Calvin Johnson has incredible size, speeds, and hands, and by all accounts is not a jackass like most "elite" wideouts. While Johnson could help the Browns by giving them another threat opposite Braylon Edwards and by opening up the running game, his best value to the Browns may be his trade value. Several teams are thought to be very interested in Johnson, especially Tampa Bay and Atlanta, however Detroit at #2 might take advantage of this before the Browns get the chance. If the Browns have a shot at him, Phil Savage and company should do everything in their power to trade down a few spots and get some extra picks.

Draft busts

Drafting in the top 5 again, I think the Browns need to determine which top player is has the least likely downside. The last thing they need is another first round bust. I decided to look at some Browns drafts to see who have been the biggest busts in the last 25 years. Unfortunately, a lot of the picks qualify as busts. My top 5:

5. Cleveland Crosby DE--a second round draft choice who was cut after the 2nd game of his rookie season!
4. Clifford Charlton LB--hung around a couple years, but certainly not a first round talent
3. Craig Powell LB--I don't even remember this guy. Released after 2 seasons.
2. Mike Junkin LB--Marty loved him, but most scouts had him as a 2nd-3rd round pick. Worst part is, they traded Chip Banks to move up to get him at #5
1. Tim Couch QB--Number 1 overall pick in the draft, still out of football

Below are the #1 and #2 picks from the last 25 years. Notice how many WRs and RBs have been drafted who have been mediocre or total busts.

1980--1. Charles White RB; 2a. Traded for Lyle Alzado DE; 2b Cleveland Crosby DE
1981--1. Hanford Dixon CB; 2. Traded for Joe DeLamielleure G
1982--1. Chip Banks LB; 2. Keith Baldwin DE
1983--1. Traded for Tom Cousineau LB; 2. Ron Brown WR
1984--1. Don Rogers S; 2a. Chris Rockins S; 2b. Bruce Davis WR
1984 supplemental--1. Kevin Mack RB; 2. Mike Johnson LB
1985--1. Traded for #1 pick in supplemental; 2. Greg Allen RB
1985 supplemental--1. Bernie Kosar QB;
1986--1. Traded for Kosar pick; 2. Webster Slaughter WR
1987--1. Mike Junkin LB; 2. Gregg Rakoczy C
1988--1. Clifford Charlton LB; 2. Michael Dean Perry DE
1989--1. Eric Metcalf RB; 2. Lawyer Tillman WR
1990--1. Traded away for Metcalf pick; 2. Leroy Hoard RB
1991--1. Eric Turner S; 2. Ed King G
1992--1. Tommy Vardell RB; 2. Patrick Rowe WR
1993--1. Steve Everitt C; 2. Dan Footman DE
1994--1a. Antonio Langham CB; 1b Derrick Alexander WR
1995--1. Craig Powell LB; 2. Traded away
1999--1. Tim Couch QB; 2. Kevin Johnson WR
2000--1. Courtney Brown DE; 2. Dennis Northcutt WR
2001--1. Gerard Warren DT; 2. Quincy Morgan WR
2002--1. William Green RB; 2. Andre Davis WR
2003--1. Jeff Faine C; 2. Chaun Thompson LB
2004--1. Kellen Winslow TE; 2. Sean Jones S
2005--1. Braylon Edwards WR; 2. Brodney Poole S

2006--1. Kamerion Wimbley LB; 2. D'Qwell Jackson

Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma

If the Browns don't get Joe Thomas, this would be my next choice. It is an area of need for the Browns, and until a good offensive line is in place, I think that generally a RB would be able to withstand the physical and mental beatings that come with playing behind the Cleveland line better than a QB could (Tim Couch comes to mind).

Adrian Peterson is an awesome combination of power and speed, and has been compared to LaDanian Tomlinson and Eric Dickerson. He could be the franchise back the Browns have been searching for since returning to the league, provided the Browns have a good offensive line and he can stay healthy. Both of these are in doubt. Peterson has had a lot of serious injuries, ala Courtney Brown, but has been plagued by a lot of nagging, non-career threatening injuries (more like a Lee Suggs). My biggest fear about drafting him is that he will constantly be nursing some ailment, and I'm not the only one. On the other hand, he could be very healthy in the NFL where his immense talent should make him a star.

The case for drafting a Tackle

The Kansas City Chiefs website has a great article which makes a strong case for drafting a tackle in the first round.

Highlights:

• 39 players started five games or more at left tackle during the 2006 season. Of that group 20 were selected in the first round of the NFL draft (51%), including 15 in the top half of the round.
• among the 12 teams that made the playoffs in the 2006 season, 11 had left tackles that’s were selected among the top 50 players in the NFL Draft.
• Only five of the 39 players (13%) entered the NFL as undrafted college free agents. That’s fewer undrafted starters than any other positions in the league.
  

Bottom line: You need a good left tackle to be successful in the NFL. Left tackles are hard to come by and the good ones are gone early in the draft.

Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin

The consensus best lineman in the draft is Joe Thomas, the freakishly athletic left tackle from Wisconsin. He is expected to be drafted in the top 5, and possibly as early as 2nd by Detroit. Experts think that while Thomas is worthy of such a high pick, he is still not at the elite level of guys like Orlando Pace, Walter Jones, or Jonathan Ogden.

Personally, this is who I want the Browns to pick. Its not a flashy, sexy pick, but it would address the biggest need of the reborn Browns and provide a solid starter for the next 10 years.

Draft needs

Looking at the team following the recent free-agent acquisitions, I think the biggest team needs, in order are:

1. Offensive line--free agency made it better, but still no stars.
2. Defensive line--same story. Could use a young end and dominate nose tackle.
3. Cornerback--what seemed to be the strongest spot a year ago has been devastated by injury.
4. Running back--Jamal Lewis is a big question mark and is only signed for 1 season.
5. Quarterback--Neither Charlie Frye or Derek Anderson looked like the answer last season, but between the awful line and change in offensive coordinator even Peyton Manning would have looked bad.
6. Wide receiver--Braylon Edwards is talented, but a distraction last year. Joe Jurevicius is solid but probably only has a few years left. Travis Wilson barely saw the field last year and Tim Carter has yet to live up to his billing.

At CB & DL there are no players worthy of being drafted #3, so unless the Browns trade down, its likely they will take one of the "fab five": QB JaMarcus Russell, QB Brady Quinn, RB Adrian Peterson, OT Joe Thomas, and WR Calvin Johnson.

Green to Browns?

The latest news coming out of the NFL meetings in Phoenix is that Cleveland GM Phil Savage has talked to the Kansas City Chiefs' GM about acquiring QB Trent Green. This comes just days after Savage proclaimed that the team had no plans to bring in a veteran QB, and were comfortable with either Charlie Frye or Derek Anderson.

I don't see this happening for a couple of reasons. First, Green can veto any trades. He has already expressed his desire to play for the Dolphins and head coach Cam Cameron, who coached him in Washington. Also, the guy is coming off of a major head injury. The last place he's going to want to be is behind the Browns offensive line, until the unit can prove that it is finally functional.

Second, Green is owed $7.2 million next season. Unless he takes a pay cut, I can't see the Browns picking up that tab.

If the Browns do go after a veteran QB, I think it would be a younger player who needs a change of scenery or a chance to start. Joey Harrington & David Carr come to mind. The Browns could sign them to a 1 year contract and if they don't work out, could let them go with no long-term damage done. The only reason I can think of to bring in someone like a Trent Green and not a younger QB, is if you plan to draft a QB early and want a veteran presence to mentor him...but I hope that's not what the Browns plan on doing.

NFL Draft Speculation

This time of year is absolutely crazy with speculation and rumor about who teams are going to draft. And 99% of the time the speculation is nothing more than a wrong guess. It's the NFL's own version of March Madness.

For some time, the consensus among NFL draft "experts" (often anyone with a website or blog), was that the Browns were leaning toward drafting RB Adrian Peterson. This compilation of mock drafts, the "Mock Draft Muncher" shows as much. However, this was compiled 2 weeks ago, and a lot has changed in two weeks.

One persistent rumor is that the Oakland Raiders, who own the #1 pick, plan to trade WR Randy Moss (possibly to Green Bay). If this were to happen, Oakland would have a need for WR Calvin Johnson, thought to be the best player in the draft by many. This could possibly drop QB JeMarcus Russell into the Browns lap at #3, assuming Detroit takes OT Joe Thomas, as predicted.

I have also read that some teams think that decent running backs can be found throughout the draft, and that unless a RB projects as the next LaDanian Tomlinson, its not worth the money to take a RB in the top 10 of the draft. Based on this, there has been speculation that the Browns will take Russell or QB Brady Quinn at #3.

Finally, there are numerous rumors about the Lions or Browns trading down, with the possible teams looking to move up including the Vikings (#7), Falcons (#8), or Texans (#10).

Rumors: Good news & Bad news

I heard & read a couple of rumors today. Keep in mind, these are just rumors and haven't been verified by the players or by the Browns.

First the good news: A friend told me that The Orange & Brown Report (Scout.com) reported that LeCharles Bentley won't need another surgery and should be ready to play by October. I looked all over the site and couldn't find a word about this, so I am skeptical. This would be great news if true!

Now the bad news: Profootballtalk.com is reporting that the Browns have concerns about whether Kellen Winslow will be able to play in 2007 or ever again for that matter. While this is a possiblility, as the microfracture surgery is a major one, it seems to me that it is too early to determine Winslow's availability next season and especially beyond. One small possibility is that this information is erroneous, but was intentionally leaked to increase the speculation that the Browns would draft play-maker WR Calvin Johnson. Some mock drafts have Johnson falling to 4 or 5, but if teams thought the Browns might take him, there might be interest in trading up for the pick.